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☆ Anti-inflation fight may spur recession, investment opportunities -BlackRock
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Central bank efforts to tame inflation could spark a recession and market selloff that later this year or in 2024 leads to investment opportunities, the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said on Monday. Increased market volatility is likely ahead over talks in Washington to raise the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion borrowing cap. But the old playbook of buying the dip does not apply now, the institute said. Any selloff may cause risk assets to better price in the economic damage the institute expect from interest rate hikes. "We're ready to shift our views on a six- to 12-month horizon to take advantage of opportunities that may appear," it said.

☆ Stocks rise as U.S. inflation trends lower, bond yields slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The odds of the Fed cutting rates later this year also increased. Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.908%. The dollar index eased 0.20% and equity markets rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. U.S. crude futures fell 1.6% to settle at $72.56 a barrel, and Brent settled down 1.3% at $76.41 a barrel.

The likelihood the Fed cuts rates later this year also increased. "The Fed does not aim get rate policy right just in time, they aim to get it right over time." Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, slid from 4.05% before the CPI news and dropped to 3.904%. Gold prices slipped as the CPI data was viewed as mixed and triggered profit-taking by some investors.

Equity markets initially rose as the CPI data suggested the Fed's most aggressive rate hikes in four decades were yielding results. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the world (.MIWD00000PUS) edged down 0.06%, while stocks on Wall Street wavered after an early rally. CHINA CRACKDOWNForeign exchange markets had been treading water while markets weighed policymakers' rhetoric against traders' conviction that U.S. interest rates should fall. Emerging markets currencies rallied on Wednesday following the U.S. data, with MSCI's index (.MIEM00000CUS) up 0.15%. U.S. crude recently fell 2.06% to $72.19 per barrel and Brent was at $76.00, down 1.86% on the day.

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

The dollar remained relatively weaker against most of its major peers, even as the dollar index rose 0.059% and the euro fell 0.15% to $1.1002. Friday's robust U.S. payrolls report prompted investors to dial back their expectations for the timing and size of the Fed's first interest rate cut. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose a touch above 4.0%. The dollar rose 0.18% against the yen. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

The Swedish crown weakened sharply after the country's central bank was less hawkish than expected, while the euro rebounded 0.65% from losses on Tuesday when jitters over U.S. regional banks buoyed the safe-haven dollar. But the market expects further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, a difference with the Fed that is driving currency moves. The euro rose 1.05% against the crown to a high of 11.426, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. Sterling was last trading at $1.2462, up 0.44% on the day, while the yen strengthened 0.28% at 133.34 per dollar. Investor attention will firmly be on the slate of central bank meetings in the next few weeks with the Bank of Japan, under the new Governor Kazuo Ueda, holding its policy meeting later this week.

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, lifted by rising Treasury yields, though the pound gained against the greenback after British inflation stayed above 10% in March and put more pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates. "We still think that over the medium- to long-term that the dollar is going to continue to come under considerable amounts of pressure. Wednesday data showed British consumer price inflation eased less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, meaning Britain has western Europe's highest rate of consumer inflation. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised up expectations for British rates to include two more 25 basis point rate hikes from the Bank of England. Currency bid prices at 2:42PM (1842 GMT)Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on Monday after the April survey of business activity in New York state rose for the first time in five months and bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. The new orders index rose 47 points to 25.1, while the shipments index added 37 points to 23.9, substantial increases after they had declined in recent months, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. "It's the best reading since last July with a big jump in orders and has taken the dollar higher on this," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. The outlook of U.S. interest rates relative to the monetary policies and economies of other countries can boost or erode the dollar's value. The Mexican peso lost 0.51% versus the dollar to trade at 18.12, while the Canadian dollar fell 0.31% versus the greenback to 1.34 per dollar.

☆ Dollar, yields gain as likelihood of Fed rate hike rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Gold pulled back from near record highs as the dollar bounced and Fed Governor Christopher Waller added weight to the prospect of another rate hike, saying the central bank's lack of progress on slowing inflation meant rates needed to move higher. While the economic data suggests the U.S. economy is slowing and next month's expected rate hike may be its last, how long rates stay at the highest since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007 is unclear. "The Fed is going to stay higher than it's forecast. The 10-year German bund's yield rose to 2.433%, helping the benchmark post its biggest weekly rise since late September. U.S. crude settled up 36 cents at $82.52 a barrel, while Brent rose 22 cents to settle at $86.31.

☆ Dollar, yields gain as expectations of Fed rate hike increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Retail sales fell 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 12 basis points to 4.097%, while on benchmark 10-year notes they rose 6.4 basis points to 3.515%. "The first quarter is going to be better than lowered expectations, which is good, but the guidance at best will be uncertain," Conger said. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters that one more quarter percentage point interest rate hike could allow the Fed to end its tightening cycle.

US inflation, Fed rates and marketsU.S. stocks ended sharply higher on optimism the Fed could be nearing the end of its aggressive rate hiking cycle. The yield on two-year Treasuries , which reflect the outlook on interest rates, rose 0.5 basis point to 3.977% and 3.3 basis points to 3.454% on 10-year notes . "That's why we do not have those dramatic moves in U.S. Treasuries on the back of better-than-expected inflation data." The dollar index fell 0.5% to its lowest level in more than two months, while the yen strengthened 0.29% to 132.74 per dollar. The Aussie dollar rose 1.0% on the back of surprise surges in both Chinese exports, which rose 14.8% compared with last March, and domestic Australian jobs.

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 10, 2023. Futures also showed expectations rose of the Fed cutting rates noticeably in September, and more deeper by December. "The way we've been trading over the last sessions indicates that the market is more positively positioned with regards to their exposure to Treasuries," Skiba said. The dollar index fell 0.48%, at its lowest in two months, while the yen strengthened 0.55% at 132.41 per dollar. The Aussie dollar rose 1.0% on the back of surprise surges in both Chinese exports, which rose 14.8% compared with last March, and domestic Australian jobs.

☆ Dollar, stocks slip after Fed minutes spur recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking stress projected a "mild recession" later this year. But the minutes showed policymakers ultimately agreed to higher interest rates as data at the time showed few signs of inflation pressures abating. Money markets initially trimmed expectations for a Fed rate hike in May, pricing in a 65.2% chance of a 25-basis-point move, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down 0.08%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.13%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six peers down 0.558%.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 4.043%. "We're just beginning to feel the pain of these much higher interest rates. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The 10-year JGB yield fell to as low as 0.445%, its lowest since April 4, after hovering at 0.465% in the previous session.

☆ Wall Street meanders, dollar gains as Fed rate hike seen in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"My sense is that the labor market and CPI would favor the Fed raising rates again. However, what has made the market have second thoughts is the extent of the tightening of lending." The dollar index rose 0.52% and the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, added 4.2 basis points to 4.014%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.03%. The dollar extended gains against the yen to 133.87 , the highest since March 15, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

Two-year yields have risen from a seven-month intraday low of 3.555% last Friday as Treasuries rallied on safe-haven buying. "Some of the banks there were in the spotlight, their stock prices are starting to at least stabilize," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. The U.S. regional KBW bank index (.BKX) has tumbled about 25% this month, but has gained about 3.8% this week as tensions eased. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy from a number of major central banks, including the Fed and European Central Bank. Oil edged lower in choppy trading as investors looked to pocket profits from two straight days of gains, and as markets debated supply tightness.

☆ Big investor in Credit Suisse bonds says 'bail-in' system worked
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The firm's exposure to Credit Suisse AT1s represented 1.32% of Spectrum's assets under management (AUM) on Feb. 28. In 2021 and early 2022 Spectrum held about $400 million of Credit Suisse AT1 bonds, Jacoby said. The Credit Suisse debt represents about 12% of the benchmark for CoCos, a massive slice of the ICE BofA U.S. dollar contingent capital index (.MERCOCO), he said. "We had been paring back in Credit Suisse, had an internal negative outlook for a little over a year." "This is a Credit Suisse event and this is a Swiss bank regulation event, this is not a global disaster for CoCos."

Credit Suisse fell 8% in Europe and First Republic tumbled 30%. Banking troubles revived memories of the 2008 financial crisis, when dozens of institutions failed or were bailed out with billions of dollars of government and central bank money. Earlier this week, the franc plunged the most against the dollar in one day since 2015, when the Swiss central bank loosened its currency peg. Japan's Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency and Bank of Japan officials met on Friday evening to discuss financial markets. Masato Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters after the trilateral meeting that the government, the central bank and the banking watchdog would coordinate to ensure the stability of the financial system.

☆ Dollar little changed as U.S. inflation data poses quandary for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro edged up 0.09% to $1.0739, but the dollar gained against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc. Fed funds futures showed the market's risk adverse mood in recent days eased as bets that the Fed would stand pat at its policy meeting March 21-22 declined. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week suggests greater Fed scrutiny of the banking sector may be in store as credit tightens. Futures priced in perhaps two Fed rate cuts by year's end, with the terminal rate seen at 4.179% in December, down from more than 5% last week. The Japanese yen weakened 0.69% at 134.13 per dollar, while the greenback rose rose 0.15% against the Swiss franc.

There's a big shift in rate expectations," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. Goldman Sachs (GS.N), among other big banks, said it no longer expects the Fed to deliver a rate hike at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22. "There's been a radical change in interest rate expectations and in that scenario the dollar has weakened," said Niles Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.47% at 133.04 per dollar, while the dollar fell 1.23% against the Swiss franc at 0.910. Earlier, it hit a near one-month high of $1.0737, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday.

☆ VIEW US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, stem financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. The fact that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will be made whole is critical in maintaining trust in the financial system and should help stem contagion fears this week. But it also means that 50 basis points (a possible Fed interest rate hike) is off the table." Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike."

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